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    Britt Beemer Lowers Christmas Sales Forecast as Retailers Hold Back on Big Discounts for Bargain-Seeking Shoppers

    Charleston, SC, December 17, 2007...The cautious mindset of this weekend's shoppers and low shopping levels revealed by the new national survey on Christmas retail sales, conducted by America's Research Group (ARG), have led Britt Beemer, founder and Chairman of ARG, to lower his original forecast of 2.0% increase in retail sales this year to 1.8%, his lowest forecast in over 10 years. Beemer has accurately forecasted retail sales at Christmas in 15 out of the past 16 years.

    "Retailers are holding back on giving the big discounts that consumers want this year," said Beemer, "and as a result retail sales are very weak." The survey showed that shopping levels this weekend are the lowest in over six years at 41.6%. The previous low was 43.6% in 2003. "I have to conclude that retailers don't try to understand today's consumer as they focus on Wall Street and their share value," he added.

    Although three fourths of Americans (74%) have 75% or more of their Christmas shopping completed, more shoppers than ever (53.4%) are waiting to get bigger discounts. Only 37.9% said they were waiting for bigger sales at this time last year, and 46.2% in 2005.

    The survey data also revealed that 50.9% of those consumers not finished with their shopping said that not getting 50% to 60% off in sales has impacted their shopping behavior. Of those not finished, 53.4% are usually much further along with their holiday purchases by now.

    A consistent one quarter of consumers (23.0%) say that they intend to shop less this year, compared with 13.6% last year. Of these, 33.2% say the number one factor is higher gas prices and 20.1% say it's a tighter credit market. Only 41.6% of consumers shopped this weekend.

    The top five stores for shopping this weekend are Wal-Mart (33.0%), JCPenney (20.7%), Sears (20.4%), Target (16.8%) and Best Buy (12.9%) with Toys 'R Us (12.6%) in sixth place.

    The top five gifts this Christmas are toys (36.1%), electronics (23.9%), gift cards (23.8%), children's clothes (15.9%), and video games (15.3%).

    Nearly two in three consumers (63.2%) shopped at Wal-Mart, with the top five gifts purchased there being toys (45.8%), electronics (18.0%), video games (16.2%), DVDs (15.9%) and children's clothes (14.2%).

    Other survey facts:
  • More consumers (39.3%) are totally finished shopping this year, compared with 33.6% last year.
  • Over three in five, 62.0% have finished shopping for their children. Last year, 56.1% of parents said they had finished at this time last year, and 61.5% in 2005.
  • Toy gift giving is down significantly with those buying toys this year at 36.1%, compared to 40.6% last year.
  • On-line shopping this year at 44.6% has faltered slightly from 46.3% last year.

    • The study consists of 800 interviews conducted Saturday and Sunday, December 15 and 16, 2007, at ARG headquarters in Charleston, SC. The error factor is plus or minus 4.3%. ARG will conduct one more retail survey before the holiday.

    American's Research Group (ARG) is the consumer–behavior marketing firm that provides clients the insight, strategy and tactics to increase market share. ARG's expertise in consumer behavior has made it a key resource and advisor to leading brands and top retailers in the nation for 27 years.

    Contacts: Britt Beemer, ARG, Tel: 843 345 0939
    BBA Communications: Barbara Burns / Eve Edwards
    Tel: (212) 486 1140 / (516) 859 3402